This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Seasonal Tendencies for Thanksgiving

It is Thanksgiving time, and we at The FRED Report ( wish all of our readers here at TheStreet a safe and profitable holiday season! And, what could be more appropriate than a little analysis of Thanksgiving seasonality and the current market!

We decided to take a quick look at the last two weeks of November's trading in the SPY to see what the market has done over the last few years, and the results are interesting. For much of the 1980s and 1990s, the market was up the last two weeks of November, but this changed in the 2000s. However, in fairness, the market also changed form a rip-roaring bull market to a sideways to down market, and November followed the trend there as well. In fact, while there may be a seasonal bias to markets, one lesson learned in the 25+ years I have been a market analyst is that one must always look at the indicators and follow THEM rather than one's emotions and opinions.

Let's take a look at the stock market.  We will use the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Trust) as our proxy for the stock indices. We show two types of indicators on the charts we use at The FRED Report. The first is moving averages, which are trend analysis indicators.  The second is the stochastic oscillator (represented by the two lines below the price chart). For more information on these, please visit our website at

We note that the stochastic has been close to 80 or above since last September, a sign of strength but also an indication of overbought. We have been looking for the market to have a sharp correction to move the stochastic back down to the 20 area, to relieve the overbought -- and this movement has been under way over the last few trading sessions. This suggests that the market can resume its upward trend into the end of the year, and possibly into the end of the week. Further confirmation of this is that the MDY (SPDR Mid-cap Series Trust) has been stronger (note the higher readings on the stochastic, a sign of relative strength). Mid-caps have been leading this rally since the lows in 2009, and it looks like this is reasserting itself. Further confirmation of this is that the moving averages on MDY have been stronger than SPY.
1 of 2

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free
MDY $265.85 0.00%
SPY $206.33 0.00%
AAPL $93.74 0.00%
FB $117.58 0.00%
GOOG $693.01 0.00%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,773.64 -57.12 -0.32%
S&P 500 2,065.30 -10.51 -0.51%
NASDAQ 4,775.3580 -29.9330 -0.62%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs