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Apple Will Make All the Difference

Today we are seeing the return of an old friend. We are seeing the Apple (AAPL - Get Report) slingshot attempting to halt the selloff.

Early in the day, Apple was up $3 and as the Dow sold off 130 points, Apple remained in positive territory and finished the day up $6.60. Can the Apple slingshot do it again? Will the market leave its worries behind and use Black Friday as a positive catalyst? According to recent history, the outcome of this week's action will determine the next three months of returns.

If Apple can reaffirm its slingshot ability, it will most likely follow the 2007 path that witnessed a November 19 low of $163 followed by a rise to $182 by November 30 and $198 by December 31. November 19, 2007 was the Monday of Thanksgiving week, Tuesday saw Apple rise $5, Wednesday, Apple was flat, Friday Apple was up $3.50 and then a run with only 2 down days brought Apple to $195 by December 10.

In 2007, it was wise to buy the November low, which is why we added Apple LEAPS to our portfolio last week with Apple hovering near $300. Catalysts such as iPad, Verizon (VZ - Get Report) iPhone, China, MacBook Air, Mac App Store, and even Apple TV give Apple stock solid reasons to repeat the 2007 performance.

But what if the market is too stubborn to rise and the Apple slingshot fails this week? Apple investors know that without a good market, the stock is unable to buck the trend, because of its role as market leader. If the slingshot doesn't work, then we are in for a repeat of the 2009 performance.

Thanksgiving week 2009 witnessed Apple $205 on Monday, $204 Tuesday, $204 Wednesday, $200 Friday, and then a drop to $188 by December 7. From that low, the stock was able to muster a nice run to $214 on January 5, but subsequently sank to $192 on February 4.

As I mentioned last week, the market has entered the "heart of the correction." Everything from retail sales to Warren Buffett's New York Times letter to Bernanke's QE2 to European debt contagion to U.S. tax policy is being interpreted negatively. The market is clearly in a bad mood.

The 35 largest banks being lead by Bank of America are approaching 52-week lows because they need to raise $100 billion more by 2015 and investors remain skittish about the potential of foreclosure woes. Although Ireland looks close to resolution, investors quickly want to talk Spain and its larger implications.
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AAPL $94.02 -2.67%
VZ $50.97 1.07%
FB $104.07 -5.81%
GOOG $683.57 -3.45%
TSLA $162.60 -7.26%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 16,204.97 -211.61 -1.29%
S&P 500 1,880.05 -35.40 -1.85%
NASDAQ 4,363.1440 -146.4150 -3.25%

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