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Electric Car Demand Could Dwarf Supply

There are all sorts of legitimate arguments against electric cars, applying to different people in different situations, causing 100% adoption to be unrealistic for the next 10 or so years. For example, people with very large/heavy van needs, trailer-pullers, or classic supercar enthusiasts, are less likely candidates for all-electric cars. Likewise, however, the strongest case for electric car demand comes from multi-car households, where the majority of demand will reside for at least the first two to three years following the current pioneering Nissan Leaf introduction. And as I have said, that part of the market alone should be about one-third of the total U.S. car market.

For the next two to three years, the supply/demand imbalance is so dramatic, with production being well under 10% of demand, that investment opportunities should abound. As to what those companies are, that will be the subject of a separate analysis, and in the meantime I welcome suggestions and arguments.

At the time of writing this article, Wahlman had no position in the companies mentioned.

Stock quotes in this article: GM, NSANY 
Anton Wahlman was a sell-side equity research analyst covering the communications technology industries from 1996 to 2008: UBS 1996-2002, Needham & Company 2002-2006, and ThinkEquity 2006-2008.

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