Ancestry.com's Growth May Attract a Suitor
BOSTON ( TheStreet) -- Many learned of Ancestry.com (ACOM) through email and TV ads, but few investors appreciate the quality and growth prospects of its service. Ancestry.com is based in Provo, Utah, and is the largest for-profit genealogy company in the world.
Ancestry.com has more than 5 billion records online. An easy-to-use platform and near-zero competition have helped the company grow at a rapid pace. Ancestry's third-quarter revenue gained 39% to $57 million, boosted by 43% growth on its core Web site. Outstanding marketing initiatives, including the airing of Who Do You Think You Are on NBC, deal-pending subsidiary of Comcast (CMCSA), have created buzz around Ancestry's network of sites. Subscribers increased 34% in the third-quarter and 5% sequentially, but the churn rate rose to 4%.
Average revenue per subscriber expanded 7.7% to $17.75. Free cash flow more than doubled from the year-earlier quarter to $20 million. Management took a $1.3 million charge to pay off a term loan, rendering its balance sheet debt-free. Ancestry has $80 million of cash, equivalents and short-term securities, positioning itself to grow without compromising its liquidity. Recently, the company acquired iArchives and its subsidiary Footnote.com, an American history Web site. It also purchased ProGenealogists, a forensic and family history research group. Furthermore, it is expanding its database of historical documents.
Although Ancestry is an outstanding stand-alone company, it would be an ideal target for a certain technology company with oodles of cash and a similar penchant for collecting information -- yes, Google (GOOG), which carries $32 billion of net cash, has suffered a 5.4% stock drop year-to-date and has made it a long-term mission to collect and organize all of the world's information. Ancestry, which has a market capitalization of $1.2 billion, is a no-brainer acquisition for Google. And if such a deal were to happen, there's no doubt that Google would have to pay Ancestry's shareholders a sizable premium for their stock.Ancestry would assist Google in its competition with still-burgeoning Facebook, which recently fired a shot across Google's bow by announcing an e-mail/messaging service that will directly compete with Google's Gmail/Gchat offerings. Ancestry could help Google bolster its knowledge base and cultivate a social element for its business model. For this same reason, it's probably a company that Mark Zuckerberg and the Facebook team are watching closely.
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