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Microsoft Will Be Third in Mobile by 2012

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- In just three years, the fast-growing smartphone market has narrowed to a two-player race between Apple's (AAPL - Get Report) iOS and Google's (GOOG - Get Report) Android. But try telling that to Microsoft (MSFT - Get Report).

The Redmond, Wash. tech titan has been gearing up for the launch of its Windows Phone 7 operating system, the long-awaited and boldest attempt yet to re-enter into the mobile phone business next month.

The huge move will test two commonly held beliefs in tech. One, that Microsoft has lost its engineering wherewithal, which has lead to the ebbing of its leadership over the software sector.

And two, it would disprove the growing sense that the market has already picked its two winners, leaving Microsoft firmly planted in the dust.

Microsoft, however, isn't going to let the mobile market slip through its hands. If nothing else, it has a huge pile of money -- $36.8 billion in the bank -- to make sure that won't happen.

"You could buy your way in, if you are Microsoft," said Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum, who predicts that Windows Phone 7 will attain 15% operating system market share in two years. "This is a market where a deep balance sheet will help Microsoft determine where they want to go."

One good use of Microsoft's money is marketing and sales. A big ad blitz will likely get the Windows Phone 7 name in circulation; bankrolling a portion of the customer's phone cost would make both buyers and telcos happy. "With Microsoft's resources, I think they can sustain double-digit market share," said Gelblum.

Worldwide, today's operating system war is a four player battle. Nokia (NOK - Get Report), Research In Motion (RIMM), Android, and Apple are pretty much the entire market. Nokia's Symbian system holds 41% of the business, RIM has 18%, Android 17% and Apple 14%, according to Morgan Stanley's second-quarter tally.

But in 2012, Gelblum predicts that Android will lead the pack with 30% market share and Apple will have 25%. RIM, Microsoft and Nokia will each take about 15%.

One reason Microsoft can't be written off entirely is that Windows Phone 7 isn't a horrible system, at least according to early reviews. It also incorporates two of Microsoft's strengths outside Windows: Xbox games and Zune media.

Adding features like Bing search, Exchange email sync and Office programs, the Windows 7 device gets out of the gate in formidable shape. It's in a far more advantageous position than other players like RIM, which brings a killer email program but has lagged behind rivals in apps, Web browsing and touch controls.

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