Potash vs. BHP: The Fertilizer War From A to Z

(Potash-BHP story updated with latest developments in the takeover drama.)

[Welcome to BHP!]

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- BHP Billiton's(BHP) hostile pursuit of Potash Corp.(POT) has as many moving parts as a cuckoo clock.

There are other clichéd similes available for use. As many chapters as a Russian novel; as many twisting roads and hidden mews as the street plan of Inner London.

In other words, it's tough to keep it all straight.

Thus, we've compiled a handy slideshow primer -- a manual, a Cliff's Notes, an A-to-Z guidebook -- that breaks down and explains all the elements (people, places, issues, obstacles) that will play a role in determining this story's ultimate ending.

It's a story, by the way, that also has a Big Theme and a lot at stake: possession of some of the best sources of a most profitable crop nutrient and, therefore, a highly lucrative hold on the nourishment of the world's billions.

>>Look for BHP to Pay Up for Potash

In the latest news, the government of provincial prairieland Saskatchewan, at times referred to as the Arabia of potash, has delivered its opinion of a BHP takeover of the region's biggest such company -- an opinion that will carry much weight when Canada's federal regulators ultimately rule on BHP's proposal -- and an opinion, therefore, seen as crucial to any deal occurring at all.

Taking its cue from a study commissioned by the Saskatchewanese to investigate the economic impact a BHP acquisition of Potash would have on the region, the provincial government said that such a deal "does not provide a 'net benefit' to the people of Saskatchewan and Canada."

The study, released on Oct. 4, concluded that a BHP takeover of Potash could remove 2 billion Canadian dollars from the province's coffers over the course of 10 years.

BHP Billiton executives, some of them dispatched semi-permanently to Ottawa and Regina, responded that, hey, these Saskatchewanders simply need more convincing. Lobbyists aplenty have been deployed by the mining giant, including the former chief press officer for the Canadian prime minister.

Both predator and prey have suffered setbacks of late. Earlier in October, for example, Sinochem, the Chinese government-controlled conglomerate -- and once Potash's best hope for a white knight, at least judging by the direction of most media reports -- apparently decided to give up on a fight it had never officially joined. The news would seem to have injured Potash's plan to avoid the clutches of BHP -- or at the very least to extract a higher price.

Looking ahead, the next important plot points in the drama come in mid-November, when BHP's tender offer expires and when Canadian regulators announce their decision on whether they would approve a deal, or not.

Also pending is a ruling on the suit filed by Potash in U.S. federal court, asking a judge to block BHP from moving ahead with its takeover attempt. In a complaint chock full of barbed language, Potash accused BHP of violating U.S. securities laws by issuing "false and misleading" statements about its offer, and by omitting important details.

BHP filed a motion to dismiss Potash's suit. A hearing is scheduled for Nov. 4.

>>Arbitrage

>>Bankers

>>Calderon, Alberto

>>Cartels

>>China

>>Doyle, Bill

>>Jansen

>>Poison Pill

>>Potassium Chloride

>>Saskatchewan

>>White Knight(s)

>>Zeitgeist