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Bankruptcy Watch: 20 Riskiest Restaurant Stocks


Altman Z-Score, Current: 2.11

Altman Z-Score, 2009: 2.29

O'Charley's (CHUX), the operator of its namesake and Ninety Nine fast-casual restaurants, got a Z-Score of 2.11, still in the less-risky-of-the-risky zone but losing steam after a score of 2.29 in 2009.

The Nashville, Tenn.-based company recently posted disappointing quarterly results. Same-store sales at O'Charley's company-operated restaurants tumbled 7.9% on a 5.7% drop in guest counts and a 2.4% decline in average check. Comps at Ninety Nine and Stoney River Legendary Steaks restaurants fell as an uptick in guest counts offset declining average checks.

Ninety Nine enjoyed its first quarter of positive guest count growth in more than four years, the company said.

O'Charley's did not offer specific guidance for 2010, attributed to limited visibility amid continued challenges in the overall economy, but did forecast current-quarter revenue between $186 million and $192 million, and a loss from operations between $1 million and $4 million. Analysts' consensus call is for a loss of $3.1 million on revenue of $186.4 million.
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