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Silver's Bullish Rise to Continue

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Silver could rally further this week on bullish technical indicators, a weaker dollar and investment demand.

Last week, silver breached the resistance level of $18.80. This week, the white metal may test the next resistance level of $19.92, which signals the breakout to record highs. The momentum indicator RSI (14) is treading at 0.517, indicating further bullishness. Silver is currently trading above short-term and medium-term EMAs, implying a bullish trend.

The dollar will likely remain weak due to growing pressure on the U.S. economy from disparaging macroeconomic fundamentals. A slew of data are scheduled for release this week and the U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls could emerge the major market movers. U.S. housing data continue to be dismal with an expected plunge in pending home sales, while labor reports may show a rise in unemployment rates. The ISM manufacturing index and prices paid index could decline.

On the other hand, the euro-zone unemployment concerns have eased, leading to an appreciable increase in consumer spending. Moreover, the ECB is likely to keep interest rates on hold at 1%. A depreciating dollar will spur silver's alternative investment demand. Overall, the dollar weakness and safe haven demand could increase the bullion's prices.

In the past week, silver reversed the losses incurred over the past 14 days, despite gold prices steadying. Base metals closed 1.85% higher for the week on the LME. Equities continued to trend lower on concerns of economic recovery stalling. The MSCI World index for stocks was down 0.41%. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) accumulated 45.66 million tones, taking its total holdings to 9196.99 tonnes last week.

The gold-silver ratio plunged to 64.92 from 68.21, on silver's spectacular performance. Silver for December delivery on the COMEX gained 5.73% last week at weekly highs of $19.38 an ounce, eventually settling at $19.07. Meanwhile, gold rose to eight-week highs of $1,244.5 an ounce on the COMEX on the faltering global economic recovery, eventually closing 0.73% higher, at $1,236.6.

Silver for spot delivery on the COMEX closed at $19.09 per ounce, while futures ended at $19.04 per ounce, indicating backwardation in silver prices. Similarly, COMEX gold for spot delivery closed at $1238.1 per ounce, while futures ended at $1,236.6 per ounce, signaling that gold prices are in backwardation as well.

The calendar spread, between silver September 2010 and December 2010 closed at -0.035, suggesting that the far month contracts closed higher than the near month contracts. Meanwhile, the calendar spread between gold October 2010 and December 2010 contracts closed at -1.30.

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SLV $16.30 0.37%
CDE $5.21 -1.33%
BVN $10.30 -2.55%
EXK $2.07 -3.72%
HL $3.11 -3.72%


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