This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
TheStreet Open House

Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

  • the importance of oil;
  • stocks as a hated asset class; and
  • our over-reaction to every little data point.

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.


Oil Prices Override All Other Factors
Posted at 11:03 a.m. EDT, Monday, Aug. 23

Oil has to stay up if the market is to go higher. The moment it turned down, the market gave up the ghost, as we all figured it would anyway without earnings and without takeovers. We are totally binary and we need the oils and we need signs that we will not go into re-recession, and every tick down in oil means that people presume we are going to have a double-dip. It doesn't matter what else goes higher -- Baltic freight, container rates, rail-car loadings. It is all about oil.

What's incredible is that oil is basically going nowhere anyway during this whole period. It has traded in a tight range for a year now, and any oscillation in the commodity has been distinctly microscopic. The idea that each tick can be so powerful is just one more reason that people dislike this market. We have this commodity we judge everything by, and because it is stable, that means that we don't have to think about it interrupting any positive life signs for retail. Because it is stable, we don't have to think about its impact on the industrial world. Because it is stable, we should not be worried about Chinese demand, especially when you include Baltic freight and container rates.

Yet a 25-cent tick up or down determines whether we have an up day or not for

> > Bull or Bear? Vote in Our Poll Pepsi (PEP) or Intel (INTC) or Time Warner (TWX) or TJX (TJX).

It's pretty nuts, and whatever is "nuts" drives away players, and that has become the curse of this market.

The only other stats that have this levels of sway are housing, and that's because the estimates are so ridiculously high vs. the reality. We sated, for the moment, the housing demand with the tax credit. It is the summer. Not a lot of players. Why is anyone predicting any existing-home sales at all? Why are these housing companies building any new homes to sell? Isn't it all pretty ridiculous? I think so.

Of course, banks look for any reason to sell, even anticipation of bad housing numbers, and we are certainly going to get those. Banks are levered to bad housing numbers and bad employment claims, two sure-fire reasons to go down.

Without takeovers, the group remains dead. I thought that the NewAlliance (NAL)- First Niagara Financial (FNFG) tie-up would mean something to the smaller guys. Nada. I am hoping that Banco Santander (STD) could take a run at M&T (MTB) and that could ignite something in the group, but that's probably wishful.

Oil and housing. Hostage.

I guess the bright side is that oil goes up now and then, particularly in the low $70s, even as everyone says we are swimming in oil.

The dark side: that oil and housing matter so much when there is so much else at stake when you are buying a stock. Or at least there used to be.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long INTC.

1 of 3

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
DOW 17,390.52 +195.10 1.13%
S&P 500 2,018.05 -2.75 -0.14%
NASDAQ 4,630.7410 +64.6030 1.41%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs