CHANGZHOU, China (
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American depositary receipts slid Wednesday on mixed broker action from several solar analysts, a day after the Chinese manufacturer of solar photovoltaic products
beat earnings expectations and upped its forecast for solar shipment volume
Auriga analyst Mark W. Bachman reiterated his buy recommendation, and upped his price target by $5 to $41 per share.
Trina's beat-and-raise was expected from the "premiere name in the solar group," Bachman told
. "Most shocking to investors was Trina's first indication of 2011 demand.
Trina was so encouraged by anticipated demand that it raised its capacity numbers for growth between 40% and 50%, he pointed out. Without offering hard numbers, Trina said it expects to achieve scale of 1.5 gigawatts by the end of 2011. Bachman had expected 1.3 GW, leading him to raise his price target and earnings expectations.
The analyst now expects Trina to earn $2.73 per share in fiscal 2011, compared with his prior guidance for earnings of $2.41. Wall Street analysts' consensus call is for earnings of $2.68, according to those polled by Thomson Reuters.
Solar is a hard space to invest in," Bachman said, "because most people trade in and out based on end markets."
End-market solar prices follow governmental subsidies in most places, he explained, and annual subsidy adjustments will happen Jan. 1.
"Trina is speaking for the group and we've heard similar stories from all of Trina's Chinese peers and from
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in the U.S.," Bachman added. By reporting last in the queue of earnings reports in the sector, Trina had more time to look at future demand and was therefore the first to give a real indication that demand in 2011 will be stronger.