Google currently leads the Internet search market with around 66% share, and we expect its leadership position to strengthen further. Search ads constitute about 72% of Google's (GOOG) stock.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key search drivers over the last week: (1) Revenue per Search and (2) Google Search Market Share. These forecasts suggest a combined upside of around 3% for Google's stock. Google competes with Yahoo!(YHOO), AOL(AOL), and Microsoft(MSFT) in the search advertising market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $683 for Google's stock, about 40% above the current market price of $486. Google's stock is quite sensitive to (1) Revenue per Search and (2) Google Search Market Share. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.1. Revenue per Search
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Revenue per Search indicate an increase from $36.50 per 1,000 in 2010 to around $44 per 1,000 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around $35 per 1,000 in 2010 to $44 per 1,000 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small downside to the Trefis price estimate for Google's stock. In the past, Revenue per Search has increased from close to $31 per 1,000 in 2003 to around $35 per 1,000 in 2009. Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Google's stock to Revenue per Search. Our complete analysis for Revenue per Search is here.2. Google Search Market Share
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Google Search Market Share indicate an increase from around 68% in 2010 to around 76% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around 67% in 2010 to around 73% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 3% to the Trefis price estimate for Google's stock. In the past, Google Search Market Share has increased from around 29% in 2003 to 65% in 2009. Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Google's stock to Google Search Market Share. Our complete analysis for Google's stock is here.TheStreet Premium Services
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