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TheStreet Open House

Boyd Gaming Most Likely Buyer of Ameristar: Poll

Stocks in this article: ASCA BYD PENN PNK ISLE

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Boyd Gaming (BYD - Get Report) is the most probable strategic buyer of Ameristar Casinos (ASCA), according to TheStreet's poll.

Ameristar confirmed on Thursday that it is "considering strategic alternatives," which could include the potential sale of the company, after the market speculated a "For Sale" listing was looming earlier in the week.

The company said it does not plan on disclosing developments unless its board determines that "there is a material need to update the market." A deal is not certain, the company advised.

Sterne Agee analyst David Bain warns that the likelihood of a deal bearing fruit is slim, given the limited number of realistic potential buyers and lack of visibility in the domestic economy. He downgraded shares of Ameristar, saying any movement in the stock will be based on speculation rather than fundamentals at this point.

But if Ameristar is able to make a deal, investors could be rewarded with more than $20 per share. This would represent about a 15% premium over Friday's closing price.

Ameristar will most likely come with a hefty price tag of about $3 billion, Bain predicts, making the pool of potential bidders with the funds necessary to complete a deal limited.

More than half of voters -- 58.4% -- said Boyd is the most likely candidate. The regional casino operator has little geographical overlap and a potential deal would diversify it away from Atlantic City and the Las Vegas locals market, J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote in a note.

"While a Boyd deal would likely involve new equity issuance, a potential transaction would be EPS accretive and reduce its leverage ration, while increasing overall debt and reducing free cash flow per share," he wrote.

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