Gold Market Repeats 2009 Pattern

By Jeff Nielson of Bullion Bulls Canada

Almost one year ago, I wrote a commentary outlining "two, short-term scenarios for the gold market."

Although I acknowledged that there was still the possibility of a midsummer selloff, I added that if there was no selloff by the end of July, we should expect the "fall rally" to commence earlier than usual, leading to "a run-up to at least $1200/oz."

In fact, there was no selloff, the gold rally did start earlier than usual, and it ended (for the time being) with a spike to more than $1,200 an ounce. As I stated in that commentary, I don't make a lot of "short-term predictions" with respect to precious metals, for the obvious reason: "Predicting" the movements of a highly manipulated market is generally a fool's game. However, there are times when market factors and fundamentals stack up so heavily on one side (or the other) that we can act with reasonable confidence.

With this commentary being roughly two weeks later in the year than last year's commentary, I see the possibility of a midsummer selloff to be much more unlikely than when I wrote last year's commentary. That said, even if there is some unlikely weakness in the gold market, as investors we must take a stand with regard to risk/reward, and I would argue that such an analysis clearly favors accumulating bullion now.

I remind readers that there was still the usual chorus of bears (and sheep) arguing that we should "sell in May, and go away" this year -- the standard mantra in the gold market, back when it behaved in clear, seasonal patterns. However, as I wrote back in March, in "Gold: The End of Seasons", supply/demand fundamentals have changed so drastically that such "seasonality" can no longer be rationally justified.

I would argue that the performance of the gold market has validated that conclusion, even though we haven't seen the "breakout" to a new price level, which has appeared imminent on several occasions. Instead, I suggest that the simple fact that there has not been a significant selloff justifies a "buy-and-hold" strategy for bullion.