Also realize that the inverse ETFs deliver "double" the return of the market without leverage. For example, if the S&P 500 Index falls 5% in one day, SH should gain about 5%, good for 10% outperformance. If you are wrong in your timing, your losses will be just as large.
Inverse ETFs also reset daily and therefore suffer from compounding--and the volatility we've seen lately will only lead to even greater tracking error. However, for those who want to go short,
ProShares Short S&P 500
is large and liquid, while
ProShares Short MSCI EAFE
Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares
cover the international side.
Another option is a mutual fund such as the
Federated Prudent Bear
Federated Market Opportunity
, two funds I have used for some clients. Retail investors may face a 5.5% load on these funds, which is a major drawback, but if investors can buy them without fees they are solid options. Over the past three months, the S&P 500 Index fell 13%, while FMAAX gained 4.7% and BEARX gained 11.5%.
Just as inflation isn't a strategy in itself, neither is deflation. The U.S. could enjoy an extended bout of very low interest rates and very low inflation or mild deflation, even as the economy recovers.
Stocks could rise in that environment, and with dividend yields at attractive levels, a fund such as
iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index
could best bonds. Technology may also perform well given the low debt levels of technology companies.
The best strategy for most investors is to hold a diversified portfolio of assets. Within that diversified portfolio, small changes in allocations and holdings can make a big difference. For instance, many investors may do better by reducing inflationary bets, rather than making specific deflationary bets.
-- Written by Don Dion in Williamstown, Mass.