International Fears Overdone and TLT Has Gone Too Far

We continue to see concerns in the media regarding recent market action in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and U.S.  indexes. Economic news has been worse than many expected.  Here at The FRED Report (www.theFREDreport.com), market action has been in line with our expectations. One reason for the recent decline in the SPY has been China fears, so we look at the iShares FTSE/Xinhau (FXI) to evaluate the Chinese markets. FXI is outperforming the SPY, at least for now, suggesting these fears may be overdone.

The decline in U.S. equities was originally sparked by debt fears that impacted the Euro Shares (FXE). We note that the daily chart of the FXE may have made a head and shoulders bottom, which would be confirmed above 126. We think it can go above this level because the Swiss Franc Shares (FXF) has already broken out to the upside, and often leads the FXE.