Forex Market At Major Swing Point

Forex and risk/demand markets are at a major swing point.

Eur/Usd is holding a long trend. Looking for a recycle lower, find support, and then taking the long break back through 1.2350.

Gbp/Usd is holding a flat trend. Looking for a recycle lower that could signal a short break if the pivotal 1.4750 is unable to hold as support.

Aud/Usd is holding a long trend. Looking for a recycle lower and then taking the long break back through 0.8650. This pair is the most bullish in regard to mid-term outlook, with 4 interest rate increases still not fully priced in.

Usd/Cad is holding a flat trend. Looking for a recycle higher through 1.0270, from where a drop lower again should draw in sellers. If not, the 1.0450 comes into view off weak equity trade.

Usd/Jpy is holding a short trend. Looking for an initial recycle higher and then taking a short reversal if 91.00 fails to break as resistance. Take care, this pair is forming a massive pennant on the Weekly chart that could create a break-out.

Usd/Chf is holding a short trend. Looking for a recycle higher and then taking a short reversal if 1.1190 fails to break as resistance.

Dollar Index

The Usd up-trend is expected to remain stalled at 89.00 highs as long-term resistance points hit hard. The inverse Usd/Stock correlation is in place. Daily trading range is high at 2%.The dollar index just reversed off the 88.50 resistance area that sent it lower in 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2009.

There seems no reason to think that the same will not happen once again if equity markets find support. Whatever happens in other markets, the current high point may be the tipping point for a mid-term Usd reversal. The dollar touches every part, of every global market, every day. It is the unit that central banks rely on as a reserve currency, and is the vehicle used to trade all global commodities on international markets. The index is made up of Euro 58%, Yen 13%, Pound 12%, Canadian 9%, Swedish Kronor 4% and Swiss Franc 4%.

S&P Futures

Resistance is in place at 80.00 with another test of the 200-Day SMA to come. 65.00 looks to be solid support. Daily trading range is high at 2.5%. Global equity Daily charts are holding a long trend that look to be finding buyers on any tests of support as half-year and quarter-end book-balancing takes place.

Volatility is reducing, as is the daily trading range. S/P futures trade reflects the risk sentiment seen in each of the main global stock markets. Futures trade runs 23 hours a day and reflects what is being priced in regard to fair value in anticipation of the cash market opening in each region. Risk tolerance = Higher equities and lower Usd. Risk aversion = Lower equities and higher Usd.

Crude Oil

Resistance is in place at 80.00 with another test of the 200-Day SMA to come. 65.00 looks to be solid support. Daily trading range is high at 2.5%.

Traders have pushed crude higher to test 200-day SMA resistance just under 80.00. Crude prices tend to reflect forward sentiment on potential global growth, or not, as the case may be. Levels of forward speculative interest are closely monitored by all professional forex traders. Long-Oil reflects Short-Usd in general, and vice versa.

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