Apple iPad Is a Cultish Fad: Analyst

CUPERTINO, Calif. (TheStreet) -- Apple's(AAPL) iPad sales will stay blistering hot until, well, until Apple fans have bought them all up, says a U.K.-based consumer survey shop.

If the past two months in gadget land have taught us anything, it is that the Apple iPad's debut has been huge -- more than 2 million sold at last count. But the initial impact has a somewhat distorted look to it, which should become clear as the year goes on and the number of core Apple fans dwindle, says YouGov analyst Katy Mogal, who dared dip a skeptical toe into the shark tank.

"The iPad's momentum is not sustainable. It's not clear that the general public sees the need for a third computing device, and word of mouth about the iPad is not in the top tier of its category," Mogal writes in a survey report Tuesday.

Apple's iPad

Where analysts predict iPad sales near 8 million in the first year, Mogal is less optimistic, calling for about 6.5 million.

It's a new category, which is why it's so hard to predict for forecasters. The problem is that forecasts assume the current sales pace. But there's not that large of a supply of those people to keep selling at that rate.

Mogal backs up her observations with some numbers. She says about 20% of the U.S. population owns an Apple product. And of iPad buyers, 97% already owned an Apple product.

More on Apple Apple Killing the Tech Sector

And while the iPad scores very high on user satisfaction surveys, the recommendations from iPad owners to non-users isn't quite as high as other products, including the iPhone and Amazon(AMZN) Kindle.

The YouGov survey shows that 69% of iPad owners recommend others buy it, compared to 79% for the Amazon Kindle and the iPhone 3GS.

Apple's iPad plays well to a loyal fan base, but several factors make this a tougher sell beyond the home crowd, says Mogal, whose firm paid for the report in an effort to provide its media and publishing industry clients some insights.

The iPad has a familiar list of shortcomings like weak computing power, an awkward size and limited functions -- too many to be considered a no-brainer consumer device.

So far, the iPad has proven that it is no iFlop. But just how big a success, or non-flop, it is remains to be seen.

--Written by Scott Moritz in New York.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints