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Currency Outlook: More Euro Bounce?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The dollar was mostly weaker vs. the majors Friday, as what started as a classic risk-off day in Asia and Europe turned into a risk-on day as North America opened.

With the eurozone being the source of all the market mayhem, and with restructuring risks still present, we do not think that the euro outlook has shifted. Monday's trading will be key: Do markets sell into euro strength or do they bet on a bigger euro bounce? Intervention fears are overblown, in our view, and so once this period of correction/consolidation has run its course, the euro will likely be very vulnerable once again.

The pace of weakness may ease a bit, but we cannot make a case for a bullish euro trend anytime soon. Key levels up ahead for the euro/dollar (EUR/USD) are 1.2619 and 1.2731 (50% and 62% retracement levels, respectively, of the big May 10-19 drop).

The yen (JPY) was weaker across the board Friday and underperformed the buck. Thus, dollar/yen rose to test 90. Emerging-market foreign exchange was mostly firmer, with the dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) falling after being unable to pierce 1.90.

The biggest gainers on the day vs. the dollar were the zloty (PLN), the New Zealand dollar (NZD), the Australian dollar (AUD), the koruna (CZK) and the krona (SEK), while the biggest losers vs. the dollar were the won (KRW), the ringgit (MYR), the Philippine peso (PHP), the baht (THB) and the yen. There were no U.S. data Friday, but it probably wouldn't have mattered much as most economic data have been sidelined by what's going on in Europe. Mexico's central bank kept rates steady at 4.5%, as expected, and voiced concern about the impact of European crisis.

U.S. equity markets were higher, recovering from early selling and surging in the last half-hour of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended up 1.25%, 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively. European markets were up, too, with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 0.2%. Asian equities are likely to open up Monday as Asian ADRs were higher during North American trading Friday. Nikkei futures point to an up open for Japan, and the soft yen should help Japan exporters.

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