The Right Citigroup Stock Call: Paulson or Soros?

At the end of the fourth quarter, Citi shares were at $3.31. By the end of the first quarter, Citigroup stock climbed to $4, and reached its highest price in the past year, at $4.31, just four days before the first quarter ended, on March 26.

Soros, who built up his Citigroup stake within the fourth quarter, may have been able to pocket a tidy profit from Citi's climb back from the abyss.

Yet, from the end of the first quarter at March-end, through the middle of April, Citi shares actually gained another $1, to a high over $5 right before the European debt crisis sent the markets into a tailspin.

Should Soros have waited another month to book his short-term profits?

Of course, hindsight is always 20-20, especially when it comes to monitoring the moves of the hedge fund managers who only ever give us hindsight as a window.

Citi shares are now back under $4, the level at which many market watchers expect that Soros took his gains -- though the hedge fund manager does not discuss his quarterly portfolio moves.

Paulson, meanwhile, continues to be a big believer in the banks, not just holding steady with his Citigroup stake, but increasing his stake in Bank of America(BAC). Paulson is the largest shareholder in both Citigroup and Bank of America shares.

Paulson has previously said he expects Bank of America shares to be near $30 by year-end, and while he hasn't called his shot in terms of where Citi shares are headed, it looks like he has more faith than Soros in Citi's ability to right itself from its recent stumble back below $4.

Soros has a much smaller stake in Bank of America shares, but he did also defy the Paulson wisdom on Bank of America in the first quarter, bringing his hedge fund group's holding down from 338,000 shares to 217,000 shares.

Paulson's bearish outlook on the banks was reserved for shares of regional bank Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB), of which Paulson unloaded 500,000 shares. However, Paulson added a new position of 400,000 shares in First Midwest Bancorp(FMBI), so replacing one regional bank with another doesn't really show a hedge fund manager drawing a bank line in the sand.

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