China Stocks: Price vs. Fundamentals

Along with Orient Paper (ONP), my favorite price vs. fundamentals play is Duoyuan Printing (DYP). DYP traded down to an almost absurd level of $7.84 when the market had its mini meltdown. But similar to China Wind Systems, DYP announced results that significantly beat expectations on a day when the market was rebounding, in a rally fueled by European stimulus money. As a result the stock leaped by over 25% in 2 days to as high as $9.74 on significant volume. I was gobbling up shares below $8 while I could and continued buying up into the $8-9 range.

Despite the rapid jump in the share price I didn't sell a single share for two reasons. First, I think the stock has room to run by about another 50%. Second, the fundamentals are so strong that even if it trades down I don't lose any sleep over it. This is my safety stock. DYP has a market cap of $280 million, but has $140 million in cash and receivables on its balance sheet. Cash flow from operations in the first quarter alone was nearly $20 million. The company beat revenue guidance by a wide margin and continues to enjoy gross margins of more than 50%. Revenues grew by 34% vs. last year. In terms of valuation, in the $9-$10 range, the company trades at less than eight times earnings, despite being a NYSE listed stock with huge growth and margins. In the past I have compared this for valuation purposes to Duoyuan Global Water (DGW) which has slightly less attractive fundamentals and yet trades on 3-4 times the earnings multiple. DGW and DYP are both run by the same chairman and have similar fundamentals and I feel that the valuation discrepancy makes DYP an easy choice at current levels.

Biostar Pharmaceuticals (BSPM) has turned out to be a case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I correctly picked this one out at just under $4 and noted that the $4 threshold share price was the only thing holding BSPM back from its uplisting. Sure enough, seven trading days after reaching $4, the stock uplisted and shot as high as $5.50 - a 38% run in a few days. What followed was a perfect storm of negative events.

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