Aluminum may record a gain of $500 per metric ton, or 24%, if providers of exchange-traded funds introduce ETFs backed by the metal, Citigroup told Bloomberg. According to David Thurtell, a Citigroup analyst, the forecast is based on an ETF holding aluminum that global consumers would use in two weeks, or about 1.4 million tons.
"The abundance of aluminum stocks makes an aluminum ETF more likely than a nickel or copper ETF," Thurtell told Bloomberg.
Other Miners Might BenefitThe appearance of aluminum ETFs on a "significant scale" won't happen until the fourth quarter because of supply constraints, Rusal said. Rio Tinto (RTP), Alcoa (AA) and other producers may get involved, the company added. Since Rusal has to meet its supply commitments, we reckon Alcoa might be a key beneficiary from this development as its utilization rate has come down from 88% in 2008 to 74% in 2009. The company might look to supply some of the metal to the ETF. This could reflect in Alcoa's earnings going forward. During 2010, the company is expected to report revenue of $20.8 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.0%. Net income is estimated at 73 cents per share compared to a loss of $1.23 per share in the previous quarter. Recently, Deutsche Bank gave a hold rating to the stock with a price target of $15.50.
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