This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Euro Drops Despite Bailout Package

By Marc Chandler BBH FX Strategy

After trading sideways in the London-less European session, North Americans have picked up where Asia had left off and have bought up the greenback.

The euro has been pushed below $1.3200 and is approaching the $1.3115 low seen last week. Many have their sights set on $1.30.

The dollar has traded on both sides of last Friday's trading range against the euro, Swiss franc and the yen. Sterling, ironically, despite the glimmers of hope in some quarters that the Tories might just pull off an outright victory, was unable to rise above last Friday's high, but did take out its lows.Support is seen near $1.5200 and then $1.5160.

While the personal income and consumption data from March contained no surprises and was largely contained in first quarter GDP figures before the weekend, the manufacturing ISM was stronger than expected, making a new cyclical high. Price paid rose instead of fell.

German officials have indicated that the purpose of the Greek aid was to stabilize the euro, but this claim seems misleading. In fact, the Greek yields are lower today and the peripheral bond markets are firmer.

The euro, on the other hand, has returned to levels seen prior to the rumors of a larger package that first circulated in the middle of last week.

With aggregate domestic demand in Europe to be undermined by efforts to cut spending and boost taxes--not just in Greece and not just in the periphery-- a weaker euro is thought to be needed in Europe to help bolster foreign demand.

Even under the best of circumstances, Greece and other peripheral countries would have a difficult time achieving the ambitious targets.

What makes many observers and investors skeptical is that Greece (and others) are still looking at a deepening contraction and the risk of deflation. Without nominal GDP expanding, the pain is likely to prove politically unacceptable. Remember what is at stake is not just this year but more savings will found next year and the year after.

Greece has updated its economic forecast to show a 4% contraction and 2.6% next year. The official forecasts have growth returning in 2012 and accelerating in 2013. The risk is that the contraction is deeper and longer lasting.
1 of 2

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free
AAPL $95.03 0.21%
GOOG $691.02 0.00%
FB $116.73 0.00%
TSLA $247.54 -0.07%
YHOO $36.59 0.00%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,830.76 -210.79 -1.17%
S&P 500 2,075.81 -19.34 -0.92%
NASDAQ 4,805.2910 -57.85 -1.19%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs