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J. Crew, Athenahealth: Ratings Changes

BOSTON ( TheStreet) -- Here are three ratings changes from TheStreet's stock model.

3. The model downgraded Amerisafe (AMSF - Get Report) to "hold." Amerisafe is an insurer, selling workers' compensation insurance to small and mid-sized employers in hazardous industries such as construction, trucking and logging.

Quarter: Fourth-quarter net income increased 15% to $6.6 million, but earnings per share stalled at 28 cents. Revenue declined marginally. The operating margin narrowed from 17% to 14%. Amerisafe holds $118 million of cash and $36 million of debt.

Stock: Amerisafe has risen 6.4% during the past 12 months, trailing U.S. indices. The stock trades at a price-to-projected-earnings ratio of 8.3 and a price-to-book ratio of 1, 29% and 10% discounts to industry averages. It's expensive based on cash flow.

Consensus: Of analysts covering Amerisafe, five recommend purchasing its shares and four advise holding them. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey expects the stock to advance 49% to $24. Sidoti & Co. and Piper Jaffray also rate Amerisafe "buy."

2. The model downgraded Athenahealth (ATHN - Get Report) to "sell." Athenahealth offers Internet-based business services to physician practices. Its products help physicians flag billing errors, track new insurance rules and share information. Full-year profit fell 71%.

Quarter: Fourth-quarter profit tumbled 84% to $4.3 million, or 12 cents, hurt by one-time gains in the year-earlier period. Revenue jumped 33% to $54 million The operating margin extended to 15%. Athenahealth holds $83 million of cash and $12 million of debt.

Stock: Athenahealth has advanced 51% in the past year, more than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index. The stock sells for a price-to-projected-earnings ratio of 32 and a price-to-cash-flow ratio of 39, significant premiums to industry averages.

Consensus: Of researchers evaluating Athenahealth, nine rate its stock "buy," 12 rate it "hold" and four rank it "sell." Thomas Weisel offers a price target of $55, leaving a potential 51% upside. Deutsche Bank and Jefferies are also bullish on the shares.
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