Kass: Moving On

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on March 22 at 7:54 a.m. EDT.

I have consistently attempted to analyze and strategize about the economy, the capital markets, leading industries and individual equities.

I try to do this through logic of argument and hard-hitting and independent analysis. Often (maybe sometimes too often), my views are contrarian, as they were when I called for a generational low in March 2009 and again when I pulled in my bullish horns five to six months later, and I will sometimes stay outside of the consensus, even though I recognize that the crowd usually outsmarts the remnants.

One thing I am proud of is that I admit to my mistakes. Frankly, few admit being wrong; after all, it is more natural for all of us to accentuate the positives and our triumphs. No place is this more true than in the business media. If you believe the talking heads' commentary, everyone sold the 2008 high, bought the March 2009 low and have stayed fully invested since!

I am fully aware that my mistakes over the past few months have been numerous and far-reaching. Above all, I have been steadfastly skeptical regarding the sustainability of the domestic economic recovery and in the view that the foundation for a sustained move in the U.S. stock market was on shakier ground than the consensus believed.

I have been particularly concerned about the still hobbled American consumer, the tentative recovery in residential real estate and the weight of phantom housing inventory, the uncertain effect of the withdrawal of government stimulus, the long tail of the last credit cycle and the amount of time it will take the deep scars of the debt overload to heal, a tax-and-spend policy that is aggravating the country's already weak fiscal problems, our reliance on "the kindness of strangers" to fund domestic growth and the likely onset of numerous nontraditional headwinds (such as rising corporate, individual and capital gains tax rates as well as the financial disarray at the level of our state and local governments) that are growth- and valuation-deflating. Also, I have often noted the growing schism between the "haves" (cash-rich, highly profitable large corporations) and the "have-nots" (small businesses and consumers who face the burden of higher costs emanating from populist tax and regulatory policy), the outgrowth of which has produced an unprecedented disdain against the wealthy that has led to a series of administration-led populist and anti-capitalist initiatives. Finally, the necessary austerity measures and consequent need to increase savings and deleverage at so many levels of the private and public sectors in the U.S. and around the world potentially pose risks to even the conservative forecasters of shallow yet sustainable economic growth.