Sequenom needs to raise money, so it's no coincidence that Cantor upgraded Sequenom to a buy with a $16 price target. Cantor wants a piece of Sequenom's inevitable financing deal and it hopes favorable research coverage will help land the business.
(Yes, I know, there's supposed to be a very high and impenetrable Chinese Wall between sell-side research and investment banking. Has anyone seen my winged pig? I'm flying to the moon to buy some green cheese tomorrow.)
The lesson here: Don't rely too much on any single sell-side analyst! On Thursday, Cantor's Pamela Bassett lowered her Sequenom price target to $13 from $16 to reflect the impact of future stock dilution. Really? That only became obvious to Bassett after Monday's conference call? Everyone else knew that Sequenom needed to raise money soon, but apparently, Bassett didn't get the memo.
By the way, Bassett has Sequenom earning 63 cents a share on $279 million in revenue in 2011. The analyst from Stephens who covers Sequenom (with a sell rating) has the company losing $1.23 a share on total revenue of $54 million in 2011.
Thinking about Monday's FDA panel meeting for Cell Therapeutics' (CTIC) lymphoma drug pixantrone, @upstateChris on Twitter asks, "Bold enough to make a guess on the outcome?" Yes. FDA panels can be unpredictable, so I'll generously give pixantrone a 25% chance of receiving a positive vote for approval from the FDA's outside cancer experts. That means I'm 75% certain that pixantrone gets a negative vote. I covered the seven reasons for being bearishly inclined towards pixantrone going into Monday's panel meeting. A housekeeping note: The FDA panel Monday is discussing Cell Therapeutics' pixantrone during the morning session, which means a vote should come around between 11 am and noon. I expect Cell Therapeutics to be halted for trading during its session. I will be live-blogging the panel meeting, so check back for the excitement.
Steve M. writes, "I was reading one of your articles about important biotech dates and remember that there was a pay site you can subscribe to get theses dates. I failed to write down the name of the site. Would it be possible to send it to me?" I like Sagient Research and its BioMedTracker web site, which provides a comprehensive and updated database on drugs in development, including key FDA approval decision dates and clinical trial timelines. It's a great service geared more for institutional investors in terms of pricing (unfortunately), but it's still something that I think an active retail investor could find very useful.
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