Health Care Reform: Wait Until After the Vote

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Investors trying to find a way to play the health care debate should put away their spreadsheets and focus on political negotiations, arm-twisting and horse trading.

Arcane parliamentary tactics are in play as the congressional leadership looks for a way to deliver a health care bill to President Obama's desk, and even the kitchen sink will be available if it can seal the deal. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Louise Slaughter, (D., N.Y.) have a plan in case that doesn't work, however.

Under House rules, the members can vote on a bill with changes for the Senate bill, while not voting on the Senate bill itself. The House would "deem" the Senate bill to be passed under a "self-executing rule." This approach would allow a vote on changes to the bill, but not be a vote on the bill itself, providing political cover for the politicians.

It's unclear how many votes this tactic could pick up, since it's questionable if it would even work. The intense focus on the health care debate suggests that politicians who argue that they didn't vote for the bill, only its changes, will ring hollow come November. There may be a few marginal votes already close to a yes, however, that could tip over for a fig leaf of political cover.

Either way, this strategic option highlights the lengths politicians are willing to go to pass health care reform. President Obama already delayed his trip to Australia and Indonesia by three days in order to spend more time finding votes. A vote may still be delayed beyond the Easter recess as well. House Majority Whip James Clyburn said he will get the 216 votes he needs, but not until after April 4.

On the other side of the aisle, the no votes are hardened and willing to take steps to ensure the bill is defeated. One of the stubborn voting blocks in the House is the pro-life Democrats who do not like the abortion language in the Senate bill. Pro-life Senate Republicans have said they will vote with pro-choice Democratic Senators on abortion in order to make the bill unpalatable for these House Democrats.