Currencies

Dollar Steady as Jobs Data Absorbed

 

GBP: The British pound stabilized off recent one-week lows against the dollar and yen and an 11-month trade-weighted low against a currency basket. Sterling receive a boost from a bout of profit-taking on its recent losses and by a survey by the Bank of England that pointed to a modest pickup in inflation over the coming year. The four-times-a-year survey by the BoE showed that inflation expectations over the coming 12 months rose to 2.5% from 2.4%. An increase in U.K. price pressures would limit the scope of easing measures at the central bank's disposal.

CHF: As widely expected, Switzerland's central bank kept the target for its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 0.0 to 0.75%. The Swiss National Bank also stepped up its concern about an appreciating franc which poses recovery risks by making exports from the Alpine economy more expensive. In a knee-jerk reaction, the euro rebounded from an earlier one-month low against the Swiss franc following the announcement.

CAD: The Canadian dollar yesterday rose to its highest level since mid-October 2009 against the U.S. dollar, boosted by firmer oil prices around $82 a barrel. Positive loonie sentiment is also supported by Canada's improving economic outlook and by expectations that the Bank of Canada might lift interest rates from record lows later this year. As a top exporter of oil, the Canadian currency often takes its cue from commodity market movements. New housing prices in Canada rose 0.4%(m/m) in January, which was exactly as expected. Canada's trade surplus increased to C$800 million, which was above the C$100 million forecast and far higher than the previous month's 80,000 million surplus. A rise in commodity prices helped to boost Canadian exports in January.

USD: U.S. weekly jobless claims fell by a smaller than expected 6,000 in the latest week to 462,000 from a downwardly revised 468,000. Last week's figure was originally reported at 469,000. Investors had expected a slightly bigger reduction in jobless claims to 460,000 in the latest week. The U.S. trade balance surprisingly narrowed to $37.29 billion in January compared to a revised $39.90 billion in December. Market watchers had expected a trade deficit of $41 billion in January. The unexpected decline in the trade balance was due mainly to a fell in oil imports, which dropped to a Feb. 1999 low in January.

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Omer Esiner serves as the Senior Currency Market Analyst at Travelex, Inc. a global financial institution specializing in corporate foreign exchange services and international payment solutions. In this capacity, he monitors, analyzes and interprets the economic, financial, political and technical factors that drive the movements of more than 100 currencies for Travelex. Mr. Esiner explains the currency markets' reaction to market events to clients, employees and members of the media.

You can view his daily reports, recording briefings, and quarterly reviews posted here. As an expert in foreign exchange, Mr. Esiner is quoted regularly by the financial media including The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Dow Jones Newswires, Reuters, the Nightly Business Report, National Public Radio, among others. Based in Washington, D.C., Esiner joined Travelex in February 2000. Prior to his current position, Esiner was a currency trader for several years. Mr. Esiner holds a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park. He is fluent in Turkish and proficient in Spanish.

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