Evergreen Solar: Know When to Hold

MALBORO, Mass. (TheStreet) -- In the past two days, two alternative energy analysts have issued hold ratings on Evergreen Solar(ESLR).

A hold rating may not typically seem like a call to action on a stock, but in the case of the JPMorgan and Wunderlich Securities' Evergreen Solar outlook, the analysts seems arguably optimistic given the headwinds that Evergreen Solar is facing.

Recent market chatter concerning Evergreen Solar has been vulture-like, focused on a potential bankruptcy in 2010, based on Evergreen Solar's cash burn rate and 2009 performance.

However, both JPMorgan and Wunderlich -- which initiated its coverage of Evergreen on Wednesday -- believe that at this point Evergreen has been priced as if it will go bankrupt.

It's a fine line between a stock being priced as if it will go bankrupt and a stock being a bargain for investors as it is poised for a surprise recovery. Plenty of investors have been burned in the past by investing in vastly "undervalued" shares right before the bankruptcy does, in fact, unfold before their eyes.

Nevertheless, Wunderlich Securities analyst Theodore O'Neill is giving Evergreen until September 2010 to prove that it is in recovery, as opposed to divestiture, mode.

"It won't take long for us to see whether or not Evergreen can manage through the current environment. They functionally will run out of cash at the end of the year, for all intents and purposes. Therefore, they will have to figure out a solution before then, and that's how we get to the six-month time frame for a hold," O'Neill said.

In the case of JPMorgan Chase, its alternative energy analyst issued a negative report on U.S. solar stocks on Tuesday that favored Evergreen shares over First Solar(FSLR) shares.