Friday's Labor Report: A Snow Job?

Those jaw-dropping figures have since left many analyzing the moves of lawmakers and regulators. The Senate attempted to respond last week in passing a $15 billion jobs stimulus package in a 70-28 vote. The House took its turn Thursday, passing a version of the bill with subtle changes. The legislation will now go back to the Senate for a final endorsement before heading to President Obama for signing.

And this week, Sen. Jim Bunning (R., Ky.) came under fire when he attempted to delay an extension on jobless benefits citing government spending worries, only to relent later under waves of criticism.

Not all experts believe the winter storms will be a big impact on the jobs number, but enough of them are worried.

"There's going to be a lot of noise in these upcoming data," said Larry Adam, U.S. chief investment strategist at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. "So, I wouldn't overreact one way or the other. I think it's more important to look at it on a trend basis rather than a cycle basis. Our economist thinks we'll see a pretty good rebound in March on the idea the employment market is starting to recover."

The noise may also force market observers to put more focus on the unemployment rate, which is culled from a separate survey.

Regardless of Friday's numbers, there are some encouraging figures suggesting such a recovery. An assessment from Automatic Data Processing(ADP) showed private sector employers shed their fewest jobs in two years, while a separate report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas said layoff announcements fell 41% last month.

Big names like Merck(MRK) and Oracle(ORCL) continued making layoff news last month. But just this week, Kohl's(KSS) said it would open several new stores, which will add more than 1500 positions.

The Institute for Supply Management also offered separate readings on the service and manufacturing sectors, each showing labor market improvements in their respective spaces.

In what Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com, says "bodes well for the numbers tomorrow," initial jobless claims fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 469,000 last week. Though first-time applications for state unemployment insurance have held around 450,000 in recent weeks, they remain well below last year's highs when initial claims approached 700,000.

But firms are also improving productivity, learning to do more with less after slashing costs and warm bodies, and suggesting that sustained hiring may remain elusive. A Thursday morning release showed output was revised well beyond expectations to reflect a 6.9% surge during the fourth quarter.

Observers will continue to pan Friday's report looking for particular nuggets. The manufacturing labor market showed positive growth for the first time in three years in January, so many will be eyeing February's report to discern a trend. A pickup in Census hiring may also cloud the overall tally since the quality of fleeting government jobs are considered inferior compared to their longer lasting private sector counterparts. Yet others will be looking closely at overall temporary hiring figures, which some see as a precursor for future growth.

-- Written by Sung Moss in New York

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