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Predicting the Rest of 2010

2. In 37 out of the 60 years, (62% of the time), the SPX rose for the month of January. That left 23 years (38% of the time) in which January was negative.

3. In 45 out of the 60 years (75% of the time), the SPX rose for the rest of the year, and in 15 years (25% of the time), the SPX declined the rest of the year.

4. In 44 of the 60 years (73% of the time), the direction of the SPX return in January was the same as the direction of the return for the rest of the year. Of those 44 occurrences, on 33 occasions a positive January was followed by a positive rest of year. The other 11 occurrences were negative Januaries, which resulted in negative performance the rest of the year.

5. In 12 of the 16 years in which the direction of January was the opposite of the direction for the rest of the year, January was lower and the rest of the year was higher. The most recent example of that occurrence was 2009. On only 4 occasions was January higher and the rest of the year lower, the most recent year being 2003.

6. January 2010 is already in the books as a negative year, so let's look at how the market did the rest of the year after declining in January. For all 23 negative Januaries, the rest of the year rose 12 times and declined 11 times. The average performance for the rest of those 23 years was -0.79%. When the SPX rose for the rest of the year after falling in January, the average return the rest of the year was 11.37%. When the SPX declined the rest of the year after falling in January, the average return the rest of the year was -14.05%.

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