Apple iPhone Risky for AT&T, Verizon

CUPERTINO, Calif. (TheStreet) -- Apple's(AAPL) next move with the iPhone might mean crowning a new telco champ.

In keeping with its three-year tradition, Apple is expected to introduce a new version of the iPhone this summer. But the question of where iPhone 4.0 will land has phone industry analysts and investors up in the air. AT&T's last-minute willingness to play ball with Apple by lowering data service prices to win the iPad deal suggests negotiations are heated.

"This is a more fluid and dynamic situation than people might think," says Michael Cote of consultant firm Cote Collaborative. "It is also a lot less certain that some of the carriers actually think," says Cote, warning that iPhone plans that seem solid today could change.

Current Apple partner AT&T(T) is in the final months of its exclusive iPhone sales contract and it has been expected that No. 1 player Verizon(VZ) would be next up to sell the iPhone to some of its 80 million customers.

But doubts about the iPhone going to Verizon have been growing. Verizon chief Ivan Seidenberg said in October that the ball was in Apple's court. And analysts have predicted that Apple's iPhone has more options than just a Verizon or AT&T.

Apple enjoys a great deal of negotiation power as AT&T, Verizon, Sprint(S) and Deutsche Telekom's(DT) T-Mobile vie for a shot at the hot-selling iPhone. For telcos, the iPhone is a guaranteed blockbuster that will bring millions of new subscribers onboard.

For Apple, the release of the next iPhone represents a chance at another lucrative revenue sharing agreement and the possibility of taking the phone to a new market with another partner.