This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
TheStreet Open House

Medivation Poised for Volatile Spring

SAN FRANCISCO ( TheStreet) -- Stock-moving biotech events don't come any bigger or potentially more volatile than what lays ahead for Medivation (MDVN - Get Report) and its experimental Alzheimer's disease drug Dimebon.

Medivation is gearing up to announce results from a phase III study of Dimebon which, if positive, could send the company's stock price soaring to $65 to $75 a share. Call it a double from the stock's Wednesday close of $33.12.

If the Dimebon study fails, look out below. Medivation's stock price will plunge. Where it stops is anyone's guess, but let's says $10-$15 a share -- or a painful 50% scalping from its current price.

The volatility expected in Medivation's stock price is scary and exciting at the same time. It's what biotech investors live for -- and dread. To prepare for the big event, I've put together a discussion of issues surrounding Dimebon, Alzheimer's and the upcoming phase III study results.

The most important question first: When should we expect the Dimebon data to be announced?

Medivation says the announcement should come in the first half of the year, but won't be any more specific. I think a more precise guess is likely March or April, given that the last patients enrolled in the Dimebon study completed the mandatory six months of treatment in December.

Why is so much riding on this Dimebon study?

One word: Alzheimer's. About 5 million Americans suffer from progressive neuro-degenerative disease today, 30 million worldwide, and the number is expected to triple by 2050. Current Alzheimer's drugs are only moderately effective but they still bring in about $5 billion in sales annually.

If the Dimebon study is positive and leads to the drug's approval, sales could easily top $1 billion and possibly much more.

1 of 4

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Try it NOW
Only $9.95
Try it NOW
14-Days Free
Try it NOW

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Options Profits

Our options trading pros provide over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • Actionable options commentary and news
  • Real-time trading community
Try it NOW
Try it NOW
Try it NOW
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
SYM TRADE IT LAST %CHG
ELN $0.00 0.00%
FRX $99.00 -0.77%
MDVN $128.38 0.00%
PFE $34.16 0.00%
AAPL $124.24 0.00%

Markets

DOW 17,678.23 -40.31 -0.23%
S&P 500 2,056.15 -4.90 -0.24%
NASDAQ 4,863.3620 -13.1570 -0.27%

Partners Compare Online Brokers

Free Reports

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs