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Investor Sees Big Upside in ICICI Bank

CHICAGO (TheStreet) - ICICI Bank (IBN) did not announce any news Monday to account for the slight decline in stock so far this session, but at least one investor expects volatility to turn the shares upward throughout the next six months.

The out-of-the-money June 44 calls have changed hands more than 30,000 times so far on the day versus open interest of 10,000 contracts, indicating investors traded these options to open. During afternoon trading, an investor bought these calls at a premium of $2.60 per contract.

That means this bullish investor expects at least 24% of upside by the time June expiration rolls around in order to make money on this trade (the breakeven price on this trade is $46.60). If the stock pops up significantly before the calls expire, the investor could choose to sell the options and take profits instead of keeping these positions open.

Normal daily options volume in IBN is roughly 6,000 contracts across all strikes. Today's call-buying action accounts for the majority of the options that changed hands so far on the day.

The call-buying action we saw this afternoon pushed implied volatility of the June 44-strike calls to 46%, compared to the company's 30-day historical volatility of around 36%. IBN shares are currently trading around $37.60 (roughly $4 off their 52-week high of $41.65), and at least one investor is betting that the stock has more rally room.

-- Written by Jud Pyle in Chicago

At the time of publication, Pyle did not have a position in the stock mentioned. Jud Pyle, CFA, is the chief investment strategist for Options News Network. Pyle started his career in finance in 1994 as a derivative analyst with SBC Warburg. After four years with Warburg, Pyle joined PEAK6 Investments, L.P., in 1998 as an equity options trader and as chief risk officer. A native of Minneapolis, Pyle received his bachelor's degree in economics and history from Colgate University in 1994. As a trader, Pyle traded on average over 5,000 contracts per day, and over 1.2 million contracts per year. He also built the stock group for all PEAK6 Investments, L.P. hedging, which currently trades on average over 5 million shares per day, and over 1 billion shares per year. Further, from 2004-06, he managed the trading and risk management for PEAK6 Investments L.P.'s lead market-maker operation on the former PCX exchange, which traded more than 10,000 contracts per day. Pyle is the "Mad About Options" resident expert. He is also a regular contributor to "Options Physics."

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