Dave's Daily: Jobs Report Surprise?

Dave's Daily

By Dave Fry, founder and publisher of ETF Digest .

 

 

UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT SURPRISE?

 

Much of the street is abuzz with rumors that today's employment report will hold a large bullish surprise.  And, yes, the government manipulates data with seasonal adjustments and their imaginary birth/death models.  But, it's the headline that matters.

 

Our friend at Jesse's Cafe Americain put it this way: "The imaginary jobs component, also known as the Bureau of Labor Statistics Birth-Death Model, will contribute approximately 72,000 jobs allegedly created by small businesses with less credible evidence than a Bigfoot or an Elvis sighting.  We can expect this number to continue to show positive annual jobs growth until the End of Days, and perhaps longer than that if there is fireproof paper in the afterlife." 

 

Some are suggesting a gonzo-like job gain of over 300K; This might explain the heavy long spec positions in U.S. dollar positions as mentioned in previous commentary.  A number like this will set the HAL 9000s on a stock buying binge at the open while trashing bonds.

 

In the meantime, speaking of obfuscation, phoniness and a lack of transparency, Turbo Tim is reputed to have instructed AIG not to reveal bailout money owed to Goldman Sachs was part of their deal.  It's business as usual and it's disgusting.

 

More pedestrian news was China is tightening credit (driving down commodity prices today); Japan wants a weaker yen (no surprise there); and retailers came through with positive earnings and outlooks overall. 

 

Volume was somewhat heavier yesterday while breadth was moderately positive.  Below is the WSJ summary:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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