This post originally appeared on Jim Cramer's blog on RealMoney Dec. 9, 2009.
The tech market has gone from loving everything to hating everything, and it's obvious when Texas Instruments (TXN) and Xilinx (XLNX) say great things and no one cares. This on top of the muted reaction to Cisco's (CSCO) John Chambers' incredible bullishness about next year -- trust me, it was incredible and in keeping with his upbeat earnings conference call, so no slippage -- and the blah reaction to Nvidia's (NVDA) triumph over Intel (INTC). (Although we continue to see Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) run, because it, like its sister also-ran in telco, Sprint Nextel (S), it's a decent spec.
We saw this last week too with the dissing of the Altera (ALTR) good news and the only momentary lift to Marvell Technology's (MRVL) marvelous quarter. Part of my thesis about liking tech was that I saw some good pin action from the group off of Altera, but it has since gone astray.
I am not willing to throw in the towel on this group, as it is coming into the winter with a big head of steam driven by strong cell-phones, desktops and product cycles, like Windows 7. Plus, I think that the action with Apple (AAPL), once again, trying to raise its head, gives me hope that the group is so oversold that the leadership is about to reassert itself.Nonetheless, I think that that if we do catch a negative data point, you are going to see a real downdraft in the group. So I would leave it like this: No need to buy any tech until we get that negative data point and then circle back to the winners, which will have their stocks dinged to levels well below where they reported such excellent news and gave such positive prognoses. I never like to have to "hope," but I do find myself hoping that Apple stays up, signaling that the leadership is back in action. I just don't like banking on it.
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