Ariad, Cephalon Make ASH Splash: BioBuzz

The study's findings "suggest that an autumn–winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 will have a death toll only slightly higher than or considerably lower than that caused by seasonal influenza in an average year, provided pH1N1 continues to behave as it did during the summer. Similarly, the estimated burden on hospitals and intensive care facilities ranges from somewhat higher than in a normal influenza season to considerably lower," according to a editor's summary of the study available on the PLoS Medicine web site.

The study does caution that a H1N1 flu activity could increase again in January, although an increase in the vaccination rate against the virus decreases the likelihood of a flu resurgence.

You can download the study here. A Boston Globe report on the study can be found here.

Meantime, BioCryst remains mum on international stockpiling orders for peramivir. Foreign media outlets have reported small purchases of peramivir in Israel, Mexico and South Korea, but BioCryst has yet to make any announcement. A story published just after Thanksgiving in the Mexican press, reported that the country's public health agency had ordered "200 doses", or courses, of peramivir.

BioCryst shares closed Monday at $7.05. The stock is down 42% since hitting a mid-November high of $12.32.

-- Reported by Adam Feuerstein in Boston

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