This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
Stocks Under $10 with 50-100% upside potential - 14 days FREE!

Unemployment Picture a Matter of Perspective

Stocks in this article: AET AMAT AA BA

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The nation's unemployment rate may have flattened in November, but heavy job losses expected in coming months will continue to provide fodder for argument between bulls and bears about the state of the recovery.

The Labor Department is expected to report 125,000 nonfarm payroll losses in November, compared to 190,000 jobs lost in October, according to the consensus estimate of economists polled by Thomson Reuters. The nation's jobless rate is expected to remain steady at 10.2%, a 26-year high.

But individual estimates are varying widely ahead of this report, with some predictions approaching declines of 200,000 and others forecasting a near flat result.

"I do think job losses will probably show up again in December and January and perhaps by February or March it will have hit bottom," PNC Financial chief economist Stuart Hoffman said. "I don't think November will be the bottom. If you believe that a bottoming out is a several months process, it might be the beginning of the bottoming out, but I don't think it means we've hit bottom."

And even if the job loss and unemployment numbers are near the consensus estimates, bulls will argue the slowing losses are a good sign, while bears will counter that the economy will be hard-pressed to grow until jobs are being created again. Investors are adjusting to the new normal, where a five-figure cut in jobs could be considered a market-moving win to the upside.

"I think that kind of drop is what it's going to take to move the market," LPL Financial economist John Canally said. "It's probably going to take a drop of 75,000 or 65,000 to actually jolt the market a little bit. Aside from that, if we get a number anywhere from down 100,000 to down 150,000, I don't think the market is going to care one way or the other."

Hoffman said, "If the November number showed a bigger loss than the average of the past three months, pending any revisions, that clearly would be a step backwards."

1 of 3

Select the service that is right for you!

Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!


DOW 18,082.87 +52.66 0.29%
S&P 500 2,090.52 +8.64 0.42%
NASDAQ 4,798.9720 +25.50 0.53%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs