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Black Friday's Revenge: Will Sales Slip?

(Updated with additional analysis of impact of Cyber Monday sales on November same-store sales comps.)

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Many had hoped that the Black Friday weekend might give the retail sector the boost to overcome a rather lackluster November.

But if preliminary estimates of last month's same-store sales are to be believed, there might not have been enough black ink on Black Friday to paint a pretty picture for November.

So how, exactly, did we get here?

It's no secret, by now, that November got off to a slow start, as shoppers waited for Black Friday promotions. When retailers reported third-quarter earnings, some also revealed that they same-store sales mid-month were down by the mid-single digits to low-double digits, Needham analyst Christine Chen wrote in a note.

And then last week, according to the National Retail Federation, Black Friday consumer traffic hit record levels -- but those consumers spent 8% less on average compared with last year. As a result, the International Council of Shopping Centers now predicts same-store sales for the month will increase between 3% and 4%, less than the 5% to 8% growth previously forecast.

The upshot: Although November's numbers should be nowhere near as glum as the 7.8% plunge seen last year, they could fall short of expectations.

Things will be especially tough for apparel retailers, as Black Friday spending was predominantly focused on consumer electronics. Alluring deals on big-ticket items like flat screen TVs and video game consoles kept some shoppers away from clothing stores and running to Best Buy (BBY - Get Report) and Wal-Mart (WMT - Get Report).
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