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Apple's Decade: How It Can Hit $500

Stocks in this article: AAPL

It appears that Apple is winning the battle. On Sept. 30, 2009, AdMob released data that showed the iPhone's global Web market share reached 40%. That doesn't mean that the iPhone represents 40% of all smartphone units that are actually in the market, it means 40% of the mobile Web traffic coming to AdMob's huge global ad network is coming from Apple. Apple is gaining while everyone else -- Nokia (NOK), Research In Motion (RIMM) and Symbian -- are losing market share. In the last six months, the iPhone has increased its mobile Web share from 33% to 40%. In North America, its share of the market is 52%. This trend is a winner.

iSupply estimates that the smartphone market will increase from 184.2 million units in 2009 to 235.6 million units in 2010 (28% growth) to 334.1 million units in 2011 (42% growth). Smartphones still make up only roughly 15% of the overall mobile-handset market. Within the smartphone market, Apple's market share increased from 7.3% to 13.3% according to data from Gartner in second quarter 2008 to 2009. Apple sold 78% more iPhones in fiscal year 2009 over 2008. iPhone units are tracking a path similar to the early years of the iPod.

Could the iPhone one day grow to 70% of the smartphone market? If it did, then we would need to raise our price target to $5,000 instead of $500. The point is, there is much upside to the current 13% global market share among smartphones and the current 2.5% market share among mobile phones in general.

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