Positive uncertainty arises when investors have a reasonable hope that the company might surpass earnings expectations. A company that can instill a sense of hope in its shareholders based on future catalysts to boost current output is the kind of uncertainty I look for. The opposite of hope is fear. If I fear a coming quarter, that is not a stock worth owning.
Now let's discuss
(AAPL - Get Report)
stock-price potential for decade 2010. Evident by the chapter title, I'm forecasting Apple to reach $500 a share. My time frame is late 2011/early 2012 as Apple stock runs up to its typical January earnings release.
With most forecasts, the exact number isn't nearly as important as the direction of the call, but with Apple, I do have a specific breakdown. Certainly, the financial crisis of 2008 derailed much of the excitement over individual stocks, as it brought down all ships with the broad market. But now that the economic environment is improving, speculative capital will return to high-growth companies that are gaining market share. Apple is one of the few companies on Wall Street to have actually grown revenue during the recession. If it was able to grow during the recession, what will it do now?
Here is one of my six catalysts for Apple to reach $500:
1. iPhone Global Market Share
More than 50% of the world's 6.7 billion people own a cell phone, yet only 19% of the planet has access to an Internet link. This is the digital divide that I mentioned previously. Companies such as Apple are working to eliminate that gap by offering inexpensive mobile devices that can surf the Web to its full capacity. Going forward, the most important statistic for investors to track will be mobile Internet market share. Whoever wins this battle will be king of the new world.