Let's take a moment to outline the key components of a good investment. Here is what I look for:
1. Economic Timing: As far as I am concerned, economic timing is the only way to find conviction in the stock market. The basic philosophy of economic timing is built upon the premise that you should invest in stocks when the economy is improving and you shouldn't invest in stocks when the economy is worsening.
I apologize to all you brilliant investors out there who utilize your sophisticated strategies, but backtesting shows that investing really is that simple. Those who seek to employ any other strategy are swimming upstream.
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