Kass: What Recovery?

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Nov. 16 at 7:56 a.m. EST.

The growing view that the economy is embarking on a self-sustaining recovery that could be similar in duration to the average expansionary cycle over the past century brings me to a new segment I like to call "Really!?! With Doug."

Of course, this is a takeoff from "Saturday Night Live's" Amy Poehler and Seth Meyers. If you are not familiar with their "SNL" schtick during their Weekend Updates, here are a few of their Really!?! segments.

Really, the economy is recovering? Really, economists?

I mean, really!?!

With globalization, wage deflation and with the prospects of tepid top-line sales growth, which corporations intend to expand their labor rolls?

So, there's going to be a meaningful return to jobs growth in 2010! Really!?!

And what happened to the previous forecasts that job creation would emerge in fourth-quarter 2009? I mean, really!

In the face of the withdrawal of government stimulus programs (2010), higher marginal tax rates (in 2011), costly health-care legislation, a low level of small business confidence, still relatively normal inventory-to-sales ratios and only a moderate improvement in demand, employers will soon to be forced to expand both hours and payrolls to meet demand? Really!?!

And, really, an economic recovery without job growth? According to the household survey, nearly 600,000 jobs were lost last month, and 15.7 million Americans are out of work. Really!?!

The credit mechanisms of the shadow-banking system and the securitization market remain adrift, and banks aren't lending. An economic recovery without credit? Really!?!

How about the state and local governments that have provided an anchor to growth in previous economic periods? Only two states have balanced budgets, and New York is letting out prisoners early to save money. Really!?!

And I imagine retail sales are going to firm up into a better-than-expected Christmas season? Really!?!