EUR-USD: Medium-Term Trend Still Higher

By Mohammed Isah of fxtechstrategy.com

EUR-USD: Although a rejection candle was printed at the end of the week after the pair failed at the 1.5047 level, the risk remains higher as long as the pair holds above the 1.4844 level and remains above its long-term rising trend line.

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The pair could again target its year-to-date high at 1.5062. Above there, other targets would be 1.5082, the Aug. 10, 2008 high, and 1.5283, the May 4, 2008 low.

The weekly relative strength index continues to point higher, suggesting further strength.

The risk to this analysis will be a break below 1.4844. In that case, the pair would likely target its Nov. 3 low at 1.4625 and then its Oct. 2 low at 1.4479. A snap below there would bring the Aug. 5 level of 1.4446 into focus.

On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term as long as it holds above its long-term rising trend line drawn from the 1.2456 level.

AUD-USD: The pair overcame its year-to-date high at 0.9327 to end the week at 0.9334, resuming its medium-term uptrend.

The pair must now hold firmly above the 0.9327 level to trigger further upside gains. That leaves further upside risk toward 0.9400 and then the July 27, 2008 high at 0.9592. The weekly stochastics remain bullish although in an overbought zone.

On the downside, the invalidated resistance at 0.9327 will now become support. Further down, the Nov. 9 low at 0.9194 will come in as the next support level, followed by the 0.9000 psychological level. On the whole, the pair is poised to head higher, having broken the 0.9327 level.