Wal-Mart, TJX, Aeropostale Face Retail Shakeup

But it appears that the off-pricers may have peaked. As Citi analyst Kimberly Greenberg said during Retail Marketing Society's annual holiday conference: "For these retailers to pick up more share gains would be a challenge since there is not much more left to steal."

Likewise, consider that the majority of the same-store sales growth of TJX and Ross Stores has come from an increase in traffic, while their average ticket price has been under pressure, MKM Partners analyst Patrick McKeever says.

"They are getting new customers who are trading down from department stores, but these shoppers are still spending less," he says.

And while McKeever believes TJX and Ross are well positioned for the holidays and the early stages of a consumer recovery in the first half of 2010, as the overall economy improves, their relative outperformance will diminish.

This doesn't, of course, mean TJX and Ross are wishing for a drawn-out recovery, McKeever says. It's quite the opposite. "These companies have always said they do better in a strong economy."

But while it's unlikely that what made them strong in the recession will suddenly disappear, they will clearly no longer be standouts in the sector once the real consumer returns.

-- Reported by Jeanine Poggi in New York

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