Bulls Shake Off Weak Jobs Report

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Speaking of the challenges of forecasting, Caterpillar(CAT) appears to be banking on a robust upturn in demand for its machines in China and the so-called emerging economies.

There's pretty much no other way to interpret the company's outlook for 2010. When it reported third-quarter results a few weeks ago in late October, Caterpillar made a much ballyhooed prection: the Peoria, Ill.-based heavy-equipment juggernaut expects its top line to grow by 10% to 25% next year relative to its projected sales in 2009 of just below $33 billion.

With all this in mind, we asked readers of TheStreet to handicap Caterpillar's projected 2010 growth range. What's the most likely outcome: Caterpillar missing the target completely (as it will infamously do this year)? Or hitting the ball out of the park by posting revenue at the high end of its range? Or ending up somewhere in the middle?

Perhaps predictably, our readers went with the middle. Exactly one-third of the survey's participants (33.33%) believe the company will obtain revenue growth next year of between 10% and 15% (an uptick already baked into Caterpillar's stock price, according to analysts, which closed Friday's regular session at $57.60). Another 28% of voters were slightly more optimistic, selecting the 15%-20% spread as the most realistic scenario presented.

Here's another interesting takeaway from the poll: More people believe Caterpillar will miss its forecast all together than believe the company will reach the top end of its forecasted range. For full results and analysis, click here.

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And speaking of bellwethers, Target's(TGT) same-store sales results were expected to augur a strong holiday season, according to TheStreet's readers. But when all of last month's receipts were tallied, those results -- and our users -- proved to be decidedly off target.

About 47.8% of voters in the past week's weekly retail poll chose Target as the company whose results would have the most upside, but the retailer actually saw its monthly comparable sales slip by 0.1%, lower than the flat expectation from Wall Street.

More users got it right with TJX(TJX), with 24.7% picking the off-pricer as a company that would see strength in October. TJX posted a 10% surge in same-store sales. For full results and analysis, click here.

-- Written by Ty Wenger and Joseph Woelfel in New York.

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