Satellite Radio -- You Can't Be Sirius?

The future of satellite radio's format is questionable. As mobile media devices become more prolific and users program their dream station for free, the worth of the Sirius service dwindles. Adding to that pressure, the recent explosion of podcasts threatens the talk component of Sirius' service.

Podcasts like "The Adam Carolla Show" have proven to be wildly popular. Carolla's show is a daily, hour-long program that more than satiates fans who commute to work. Podcasts are available in all genres and are usually free, making the need to take the monthly hit from Sirius even more questionable.

For sports fans who listen to games from around the country, how often do they listen to them in the car versus watch them on TV? For those watching TV, why not spring for a season pass, available through most cable and dish companies, so the games can be seen, not just heard?

Other parts of the Sirius value proposition also evaporate upon closer inspection. Howard Stern, the king of all media, apparently, is a huge draw, but his contract will expire in a little over a year, and he hasn't said if he'll stay. Should he defect for the podcast world or simply retire with the millions he earned in his first deal, Sirius would see subscribership drop dramatically.

Sirius has become somewhat notorious lately as a vocal minority of conspiracy-theorist shareholders have been quick to label any negative media coverage of the struggling company as market manipulation. They've called on the Securities and Exchange Commission to take action. Many proponents make confusing claims, such as: Bankruptcy is off the table because debt has been refinanced until 2011. Of course, missing an interest payment in the interim could sink Sirius. The prospect of a conspiracy against a stock that has no trouble losing money all by itself is, of course, laughable.

Sirius' quarterly results were, indeed, surprisingly good, but the problems are too numerous for this one not-so-bad quarter to shine as a beacon of hope. From heavy debt to an outdated business model, the company is still in serious trouble. When a loss of $11 million is applauded as a "great quarter," you know a company is in bad shape.

-- Reported by David MacDougall in Boston.

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