Autumn's Contrarian Ideas: Mid-Term Report

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- We are approximately halfway through the term of the autumn contrarian trading portfolio. The portfolio has a gain of 0.03% as of the market close of Oct. 30. This is a drop of more than 3% since the last update two weeks ago. The bulk of the damage resulted from declines in natural gas prices and silver. We now have only three of the nine original positions open. We will be reopening one of the previously stopped positions on Monday.

Idea No. 1: Buy Natural Gas

The position in U.S. Natural Gas (UNG) was sold per a stop-loss order at $10.39 on Oct. 28. The position lost 11.6%, the worst performance in the portfolio. We will watch this for a possible re-entry. For now, we are putting in a limit order to buy at $9.10 or less to try to catch a dip back to the lows of Sept. 3, if it should occur.

The other position under this idea was First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (FCG), which also stopped out, with a 4.5% gain, on Oct. 28.

Idea No. 2: Buy North American Energy Production

We bought Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF) for this position. This was stopped out on Oct. 30 (stop-loss order) for a gain of 1.2% since Sept. 25.

Idea No. 3: Buy Silver

Gold and silver have pulled back significantly in the past two weeks. Our position in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is holding just above our stop-loss order at $15.64. The gain since Sept. 25 is 2.1%. If this position is closed by hitting the stop loss, a position in Ultrashort Gold ProShares (GLL) will be opened the same day.

Idea No. 4: Buy Corporate Bonds

This position was closed previously.