Autumn's Contrarian Ideas: Second Update

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The last two weeks have seen a lot of action in this portfolio. Silver and gold, as well as oil, have taken off; so have stocks. And the short positions in stocks have been stopped out. Being short municipal bonds has accrued further gains, while natural gas has languished. The portfolio gain since the Sept. 25 opening is now 3.3%.

Here's the position-by-position results and current risk management strategy.

Idea No. 1 -- Buy Natural Gas

In spite of the surge in oil and the advent of some early winter weather, high inventories continue to weigh on natural gas prices. The position in United States Natural Gas (UNG) has gained slightly since the last report two weeks ago, but is still below the entry price. The trailing stop loss has risen slightly since the report in early October.

The companion position in First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (FCG) has surged ahead more than 16%. The current trailing stop is now at $16.77 and would assure a gain of 4.5% if triggered.

Idea No. 2 -- Buy North American Energy Production

The position in Enerplus Resources Fund(ERF) is up more than 9%. The current trailing stop loss is at $22. This would produce a gain of 0.5% if triggered.

Idea No. 3 - Buy Silver

Silver has moved up with gold. iShares Silver Trust(SLV) is up almost 9%. In the same time period, SPDR Gold Shares(GLD), the exchange-traded fund for gold bullion, is up more than 10%, so the strategy to take advantage of the relative undervaluation of silver hasn't worked to our advantage yet. The following graph shows the up trending recent trading band for SLV.

iShares Silver Trust Source: Stockcharts.com

The new stop loss has been set at $15.60. This is just below the intraday lows of late September and early October and right on the 50-day moving average. If this stop is triggered, we will then buy the ultra short gold ETF, UltraShort Gold ProShares(GLL), the same day.

Idea No. 4 -- Buy Corporate Bonds

This position was closed previously.

Idea No. 5 -- Short Financials