NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Emerging-market funds have been on fire. Van Eck Emerging Markets (GBFAX) has returned 108% this year, and Dreyfus Emerging Asia (DEAAX) is up 121%. Plenty of investors have been piling into emerging funds. But before you write a check, consider the fate of other high-flying funds. In nearly every case in the past, they have crashed soon after returning 100% in a year.
An episode of triple-digit returns occurred two years ago. With investors keen on the outlook for China, some Asian funds doubled. During the 12 months ending in October 2007, Dreyfus Greater China (DPCAX) soared 148%, while Aberdeen China Opportunities (GOPAX) jumped 145%. Then, with the credit crisis beginning to unfold, Asian stocks fell. For the year ending in October 2008, Dreyfus Greater China lost 72% of its value, and Aberdeen tumbled 64%.
Among the most dramatic market performances ever came in 1999 when 126 funds returned more than 100% for the year. Within months, nearly all the winners fell off a cliff.
Considering that history, should you stay away from red-hot emerging-markets funds altogether? Not necessarily. While emerging stocks could be rough for the next year, long-term investors have good reasons to begin gradually buying. By many measures, the outlook for emerging economies looks stronger than ever.In the past, financial advisers viewed emerging-market stocks as shaky investments. Many countries in Latin America and Asia were plagued with heavy debt loads and sketchy financial regulation. In light of the extra risk, the price-to-earnings ratios of emerging shares were always lower than the multiple that investors paid for the S&P 500.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV