Dow 10,000: Where's the Beef?

On the other hand, Dow 10,000 signals the start of another downturn for some. Windham Financial's Mendelsohn is in a camp that observes parallels between the position U.S. markets are in and what Japan's Nikkei 225 endured during a miserable 10-year stretch when it dropped from a high of nearly 39,000 to roughly 15,000.

"We're in a Japan scenario," Mendelsohn said. "I think our economy is basically going to be like Japan's. We acted very similarly. We brought our interest rates down to zero. We made sure our banks did not fail. We didn't clean up the problem with the bad loans. We swept it under the rug. Why should we be expecting a different outcome?"

Those who share Mendelsohn's view argue that the market simply cannot go back to trading as it did in the past. For them, it is very possible the next decade could resemble Japan's 10-year struggle, with the Dow stuck between 6000 and 10,000.

"For a short-term trader, this has worked. But for long-term people, this isn't over, and they may be better off on the sidelines," Mendelsohn said. "Getting to 10,000 is not an exciting point for me. It's the kiss of death."

-- Written by Robert Holmes in New York.

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